Gubernatorial races 2014.

Senate elections.

The 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections took place on November 4, 2014.  People went to the polls to vote for every seat in the House, and in some local and state legislature elections. In addition, thirty-six states held gubernatorial elections and Class II senate seats were up for grabs, plus a special election in South Carolina.

Congressional Majorities

After the government shutdown, some people predicted that the Democrats would take the House back in 2014; although with gerrymandering and the poor rollout of Obamacare, this didn't happen. The GOP took the Senate - most of the races that are supposed to be competitive were for seats held by Democrats in states Mitt Romney won in 2012. There were a lot of Republicans up for reelection then in Blue states, conditions Democrats could've used to win enough seats to override Filibusters.[1]. It was considered unlikely that Republicans would pick up the six seats needed to get a symmetrical flip up to the majority; though some said the chance was about equivalent to a coin flip[2]. Most forecasts predicted Republicans would pick up about 2 to 4 seats.

Races to Watch



Democratic Governor Mike Beebe is retiring.  So far the only Democrat is former congressman Mike Ross.  On the GOP side, there's Curtis Coleman, Debra Hobbs, and Asa Hutchinson.  There's also a Green Party candidate, Josh Drake.

Ratings: Cook: Toss-up; Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up/Tilt Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up[3]


Incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy has faced poor approval ratings throughout his term thanks to a poor economy and unpopular tax increases. [4] He is being challenged by Republican Tom Foley, who he barely beat in 2010. Polling has Foley three points ahead. [5]

Ratings: Cook Political Report:Lean Democrat; Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democrat; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up


Florida governor Rick Scott was elected in the 2010 tea party sweep. Democratic candidates are former Republican governor Charlie Crist, Farid Khavari, and former state senate minority leader Nan Rich. Khavari has an interesting plan for a state-run bank, but Rich is opposed to fracking and supports labeling of GMO's. Crist leads the primary polls. Polls have also found that he is more likely to beat Rick Scott than Rich[6][7], although his lead is shrinking[8].

Ratings: : Cook Political Report: Toss-up[9]; Rothenberg Political Report:Pure Toss-up[10]; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up


Democratic governor Pat Quinn has no primary opponents and a thirty-four percent approval rating.  The four Republicans running for this race are Bruce Rauner, Kirk Dillard, Dan Rutherford, and Bill Brady.  The only bright side for liberals here is that Illinois is a very liberal state: Quinn is not a great governor but he's the least bad candidate, so we want him to win.

Ratings: Cook Political Report:Toss-Up; Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democrat; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up


This race is complicated.  Current  Tea Party governor Paul LePage is extremely unpopular.  The Democratic challenger is Congressman Michael Michaud.  LePage was elected in 2010 with only thirty-eight percent of the vote.  He won because a Democrat and an independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, split the Democratic vote[11].  Cutler is running again and a three-way race like this could potentially reelect LePage, despite his thirty-nine percent approval rating.

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Toss-up; Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democrat


Tea Party Governor Rick Snyder is extremely unpopular.  Although he's not yet announced his candidicay, he has a campaign website with a big, blue "Contribute Today" button[12].  The Democrats have rallied behind former state senator Mark Schauer

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Toss-up; Rothenberg Political Report: Pure toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican


Governor Tom Corbett is the least popular governor in the country and his popularity just keeps getting worse.[13]. The Democratic primary field is large, but the most likely nominee is Representative Allyson Schwartz. The other Democratic candidates are Rob McCord, Kathleen McGinty, John Hanger, Ed Pawlowski, JoEllen Litz, Max Myers, and Tom Wolf.

Ratings(12/31/13): Cook Political Report: Toss-up[9]</ref>; Rothenberg Political Report:Lean Democrat[10]</ref>; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democrat

Rhode Island

Governor Lincoln Chafee is retiring. The two main Democratic candidates are Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras. Taveras is considered to be the more progressive option. The GOP candidates are Allan Fung and Ken Block.

Ratings (1/1/14)Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat; Rothenberg Political Report: Democrat Favored; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat


Rick Perry is finally retiring, but there's a worse man in store for Texas: Attorney General Greg Abbott. Abbott's opponent is Wendy Davis, a state senator who captured national attention with an eleven-hour filibuster of abortion restrictions. The election will be an uphill battle for Davis, but compared to the last Democrats who ran for Texas governor, she has better chances.

Ratings (12/31/13): Cook Poltical Report: Solid Republican; Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican


Tea Party Governor Scott Walker is unquestionably one of the worst in the United States-besides failing to create the jobs he promised, a recall was attempted, Walker won and then used the fact that people signed the recall petition to deny them minor, non-political government offices[14].  The two democratic candidates are Kathleen Vinehout and Mary Burke.  Despite Walker's outrageousness, the race is not likely to be as contested as you might think.

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Likely Republican; Rothenberg Political Report: Republican Favored; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican



Democrat Mark Begich is running for reelection.  His opponent will probably be either former attorney general Dan Sullivan; Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, a moderate; or conservative Joe Miller.  Miller was the GOP nominee in 2010, but lost to incumbent Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign.  Although she's not announced her candidacy yet, apparently the largest number of Alaska Republicans want Sarah Palin to be the nominee[15].   Begich has a small lead over his opponents[16].

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat.  Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up


Incumbent Mark Pryor is one of the most endangered Democrats in the country.  His likely opponent is GOP Congressman Tom Cotton.

Ratings:Cook Political Report:Toss-up Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up/Tilt Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican.


Incumbent Saxby Chambliss is retiring.  Democrat Michelle Nunn is the likely Democratic nominee.  Meanwhile, the GOP field is crowded: Congressman Paul Broun, Art Gardner, Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, Karen Handel, Jack Kingston, David Purdue, and Eugene Yu.    The nominee will probably be Gingrey, Broun, Handel, or Kingston[17].  All four are very conservative, judging by their websites. This is exactly what the Democrats want.  Because the Georgia GOP is very conservative, the Democrats are hoping that, in order to win the primary, each candidate racks up a good share of Todd Akin moments. This is by far the Democrat's best oppritunity for a pick-up.

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Rothenberg Political Report: Republican Favored Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican


Democratic incumbent Tom Harkin is retiring.  Democratic congressman Bruce Braley has the support of Harkin.  The GOP field is currently lead by Sam Clovis and Joni Ernst. Other candidates are Mark Jacobs, Paul Lunde, Scott Schaben, and Matt Whitaker. However, if evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats ran, he would win[18].

Ratings:Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democrat Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democrat


Everybody who hates Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell should be pleased right now, because he might not have a job come 2015. His main Democratic challenger is Alison Lundergan Grimes. However, he also has a Tea Party challenger, Matt Bevin. Although McConnell will probably win the primary, it will force him to spend some cash he could've spent on the general election.

Ratings: Ratings:Cook Political Report: Toss-up Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican


Although she's a conservative democrat, incumbent Mary Landrieu did vote for Obamacare, which is complicating her reelection bid. Her most likely opponent is Rep. Bill Cassidy.

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat Rothenberg Political Report: Pure Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up


Carl Levin, the Democratic incumbent is retiring.  The race will probably come down to former GOP Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and Democratic congressman  Gary Peters.

Ratings:Cook Political Report: Toss-up Rothenberg Political Report: Democrat Favored


Incumbent Max Baucus is retiring, the Democrats don't have a great candidate, the Republicans will win.

Democratic Incumbent Max Baucus is about to be appointed Ambassador to China. This will allow for Lt. Governor John Walsh, the likely nominee, to be appointed to the seat. As an incumbent, he'll be in a better position to beat the likely Republican, Congressman Steve Daines.

Ratings: Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up/Tilt Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican

North Carolina

Democrat Kay Hagan beat Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Her opponent will be either Greg Brannon (proudly endorsed by Rand Paul), Mark Harris (committed to "traditional values", Heather Grant, Bill Flynn, and State House Speaker Thom Tillis. This is also a very conservative primary field that might get several Todd Akin moments as well.

Ratings:Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat Sabato's Crystal Ball:Toss-up


  9. 9.0 9.1
  10. 10.0 10.1
  15. NOTE: This poll is from July 2013, might be getting old
  17. NOTE: August 2013